As part of our ongoing study of human failure, we’re looking at the mismanagement of the Lahaina Wildfire. Wildfires happen all the time, but this was a particularly interesting case where the problem may have been made worse by management ineptitude.
I say “may have” because it is not completely clear at the moment exactly what happened to make things as bad as they were. There have been around 100 confirmed fatalities, and the authorities have listed the names of 388 people that are now missing.
Here’s a video:
Who am I to be telling you this?
Have I told you lately that I have a lot of experience in the field of human failure? I’ve been auditing the quality systems of major Fortune 500 companies for about a decade and prior to that I’ve been all over the world getting into and then solving problems.
This includes industries like explosives, chemicals, food and beverage and other fun stuff. I have stories to tell.
Look at some of my other blog posts.
Back Story
Lahaina is a town of about 13,000 people on the west coast of the island of Maui. This is one of the less-touristy areas of Hawaii and populated by a lot of people that wanted to stay away from tourists.
There is a timeline of what happened in one or more of the articles below. To make a long story short, in an 8 hour period on August 8th, this went from “normal wildfire, nothing to see here” to completely engulfing the town, causing a lot of people to literally stand neck deep in water while they watched their town be consumed in flames.
What we’re interested in is a particular moment. Lahaina had an emergency siren system. At a certain point, the local “disaster mismanagement” authorities decided not to sound it. As we’re going to explore, the decision not to sound the alarm has met with some revisionist thinking.
At the time I an writing this, the investigation is still not complete. The lawsuits are just starting to fly, the first one is to stop the power company from removing some of the wreckage. There is a theory that the electrical transmission lines could have contributed to the problem, and it would be removal of evidence.
Historical Context
We should mention this too. Before it became cheap enough to fly there, this place was a resource economy. There were huge sugar plantations, and other agricultural activity. The end result of this is a lot of invasive grasses in the rural areas of this place, which are prone to fire.
There is still some stress in this place over water, which is now needed for both the population and the remaining agriculture. One of the sticking points in the fire situation was releasing of the local water supply for firefighting purposes.
There were a lot of wildfires in 2019, which caused the disaster preparation people to do a lot of report writing, but it looks like there is an underlying, ongoing problem with wildfire management.
A paper below says that this area is also prone to tsunami, there have been 19 of these events, including one in 1946 that killed 159 people. So these unfortunate people have to deal with several types of natural disasters.
The Alarm System
Let’s tackle this part of the problem first. The island has a very well designed FEMA-approved emergency management plan. A series of sirens has been installed to warn the local population that they’re about to be hit by a disaster.
I’ve provided a link to the emergency alert instructions below. There are 80 sirens that are tested once a month. According to the document I’ve linked below, they cover the whole inhabited part of the island. If you hear one, other than the test, you’re supposed to immediately tune into TV or local radio for someone to tell you what to do.
The default option seems to be to evacuate to high ground, like it would be in a place where you’re worried about tsunamis.
Alarm Systems In General
You already know how I feel about alarms. I have this little video on the topic, which needs traffic.
If there are two choices, on and off, there are sixteen possible combinations of an event occurring and the right thing happening. Of these, there are only four “good” outcomes.
What you want is for the event to happen, the alarm to go off, and then people react in some predetermined way, whatever that might be.
Math Lesson
So here’s your problem as it applies to this particular alarm system. There are actually two options for the siren. One warns you of a natural disaster, which the locals assume will be a tsunami, and the other warns you of some kind of military attack. Do I need to mention that this was one of the few places in the USA that was actually attacked at one point?
So that gives three options, and a total of 9 outcomes of the alarm, only 3 of which are desirable.
Here are some graphs
What did we learn from this? Well, by increasing the complexity of the alarm, everything else being equal, without any training, there are 81 possible combinations of events and only 6 are “good.”.
So by putting in the second option, you’ve reduced your success chances from 25% to 7%.
The Burleson Experience
The city of Burleson Texas, a Dallas suburb, is subject to a lot of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. They conducted a survey of the town’s residents, and I have linked it below. It basically says just what we say in the video above. They also have a system of two-level alarms in case of Japanese attack.
The project at hand was to try to figure out criteria for setting off the alarm. Thunderstorms and tornadoes are so frequent there that they feel the need to limit the number of alarms.
The first thing it says is that about 8% of the population is so out-to-lunch that it is unaware there is even a siren system.
The second thing it says is ⅔ of the people are either unaware of the two-level alarm, or don’t understand whether or not they should shelter in place or start running somewhere.
It goes on to say that when the alarm does go off, only about ⅓ of the people that hear it actually seek a tornado shelter. About 60% of the people will consult media to get more information before acting.
It further goes on to say that ⅔ of the people are at least smart enough to know that when the siren shuts off the danger is not necessarily over. But, that still leaves ⅓ of the population that is running out into the back yard to pick up hailstones.
The Burleson Experience Outcome
The survey seems to have indicated that the best course of action is to try to limit the alarm sounding to certain areas, and 70% of the population would prefer a text message or other alert in addition to the siren.
Part of me wants to expand this into a well-written chapter for a book about human failure. If I were to do that I’d explore the idea of whether or not we should depend on some government official to warn us about some actual or perceived danger.
The current attitude of the public on this question is “nuanced.” At one point, back in the cold war days, warning us of potential peril was considered a vital government function. Today, not so much.
Emergency Mismanagement
Now, we will tackle the topic of the person or people involved in the alarm decision.
According to the article below, the county “Emergency Management Director” has resigned over this. His underlying rationale for not setting off the alarm seems to be that he was worried that everyone would run out into the streets.
As it turns out, that is exactly what they should have done to get away from the fire. As the fire roared down on the little town, it should have been fairly obvious that they needed to abandon the place. Lack of evacuation routes also seems to have been an issue in some reports..
I have added his Linkedin profile to the references below. I’d have to say this looks like a fairly bright fellow. He has a JD degree, and has been around for awhile. He worked for some length of time as one of the assistants to the beloved Mayor. There were over 30 other candidates for the job, despite having no “emergency management” experience. What could possibly go wrong?
Hiring Managers
I have another little video on this topic. At one point in time, managers were hired on the basis of skill and experience, and/or character, courage, and honesty.
But, this is a government job, and in this case, on the surface of it, a reasonable person would have to say he knew somebody.
So at one level, it looks like he did a pretty good job. His website is tidy, he probably is good giving speeches to fifth graders, and looks good on TV. There is some kind of Citizen’s Response Team and he probably did a good job of that too.
I also posted below the job description of an Emergency Management Coordinator from the BLS “Operational Outlook Handbook.” This thing basically says that you’d better be used to making decisions with a lot of people screaming at you.
Our fellow in East Palestine, Ohio, has some experience with this. We are more respectful of him after this event.
The Patron Saint of Emergency Management
We talked about this fellow too. It’s Red Adair. This fellow was so famed in the practice of firefighting that a movie was made about him. He got his start by basically singlehandedly approaching a burning oil well with a wrench and shutting it in by hand.
Later, he innovatively developed various methods for shutting off oilfield blowouts and and was hired to shut off a lot of those oilwell fires during the Iraq War. He became rich and famous for his ability to cope with disaster.
Here’s a quote:
“They’ve been to school, but they haven’t been out bustin’ their asses on oil rigs,” he told Singerman. “Arguing with an engineer is like wrestling with a pig. Everybody gets covered with crap, and the pig’s the only one who has a good time.”
Thought Question
So would Maui County have been better off if Red Adair was on the job? The answer is, that we’ll never know. Red would have never been hired. I am going to go out on a limb and say that our man Red would not have been a pleasant person to have around the office, and would not have necessarily looked good in a suit. He might have had his own reality show if he was around today..
Our fellow up in East Palestine would also probably not have gotten the job.
People In the Wrong Job
Here’s another video that basically says that it is very rare to have someone in his or her job align with their personality. If you’re brilliant at something, like our guy Red, it might be better if you are/or own the company. You are part of the product.
A little industry has developed to measure peoples’ personality. I have been around the Myers-Briggs test as a example. The Myers Briggs Test has correctly come under some scrutiny due to its apparent cultural bias, and companies are fighting lawsuits all the time because of potential discrimination.
But, it is a fun way to think about this stuff. Since I’m writing this for entertainment purposes, it’s fine.
The dominant “lawyer” personality types, INTJ or ISTJ are analytical but not creative problem solvers. The hilarious summary I’ve linked below says that in the face of disaster the ISTJ will methodically follow the drills they have been practicing for years. The INTJ will not know what to do, and become anxious because of the lack of a plan.
What you need in this situation is a personality type that will logically and calmly solve the problem, but these people may not be all that great to have around the office either. They’re not commonly associated with the legal profession.
Disclaimer
You can see where generalizing someone based on this test can get you into trouble. By statements like “not a creative problem solver” as determined in some way other than having them solve problems is potentially limiting.
That’s a side point.
But it sounds like a clue here. We had a person in the job who was good around the office, we suppose, and what we needed was Red Adair.
A coping strategy would be to hire Red as the second in command, but you still have to pay him, and put up with him around the office. Mismanagement of the Lahaina Wildfire might have been a different story with more resources.
Mismanagement of the Lahaina Wildfire: Unknowns
What I really want to know was, where physically was our “Emergency Management Director” when that decision was made?
The county office is in the most populated place on the island, which is in a place called Wailuku, and the fire was on some remote peninsula. If our “Emergency Management” guy had the fire roaring down on him, he may have made a better decision.
And, if he wasn’t in some command post, at the time of the disaster, where was he, exactly?
Mismanagement of the Lahaina Wildfire: Aftermath
Well, unfortunately, this is one of those situations where we will never know what would have happened. The lawsuits are beginning to fly, of course, and the search for the unfortunate victims is still going on.
It is possible that the fire was so severe and so fast that even Red Adair himself would have not been able to contain it. General Honore, the Category 5 restorer of order to New Orleans, might be helpful in the recovery efforts. The military is a good place to find people experienced in disaster that aren’t afraid of anything, and clear communicators.
But, of course that’s a generalization too. He also may not have been good to have around the office.
Lessons are all around us.
PS: Did you know I am a published author?
Here is my link to Udemy course, “How Not to Fail at ISO9001”
https://www.udemy.com/course/how-not-to-fail-at-iso9001/learn/lecture/34733460#content
Here’s the link to my Quality Systems Training. You can hire me to give this training in person, complete with questions and answers, and along with a few decades worth of horror stories about product quality, dangerous products, and why people don’t do their jobs.
And, here’s the link to my book “How Not to Fail at ISO9001” available at Amazon.
The Spanish version is also available.
Links and References
Maui Sirens
Maui Tsunamis
http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/Library/Tsunami%20Reports/Cox_1979.pdf
Fire Missing List
Emergency management Qualifications
https://www.indeed.com/jobs?q=Emergency+Management&l=Los+Angeles%2C+CA&from=sug&vjk=95e70fd30f5a91ce
Herman Andaya Resume
https://www.linkedin.com/in/herman-andaya-99b49022
Firing Herman Andaya
Herman Andaya Salary
https://edujobbd.com/herman-andaya-salary/
Herman Andaya underqualified
Maui Fire Timeline
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/08/hawaii-wildfires-timeline-maui-lahaina-dg/index.html
County Information Maui County
Multi Hazard Mitigation Plan
FEMA Emergency Management Plans
https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-05/CPG_101_V2_30NOV2010_FINAL_508.pdf
Maui Emergency Response Plan
https://www.mauicounty.gov/70/Emergency-Management-Agency
Maui Outdoor Siren Testing
In case of a natural disaster, a steady three-minute siren tone is the attention alert signal. When the siren is heard, evacuate low-lying areas near the coastline, tune your radio or television to any local station and listen for emergency information and instructions. Listen to Emergency Alert System (EAS) broadcasts for further instructions and the all-clear announcement.
Hawaii Wildfire Dot Org
https://www.hawaiiwildfire.org/
Colorado Sirens people do not get the word
Burleson Texas Experience
https://apps.usfa.fema.gov/pdf/efop/efo46556.pdf
Code of Ethics and Professional Standards
https://training.fema.gov/hiedu/specialinterest/docs/code_of_ethics_and_appendices_2022_final.pdf
FEMA tabletop exercises
https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/fact-sheet-3_pre-event-exercizes-training.pdf
Functional Exercises
2019 Maui Fire
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/01/06/hawaii-news/maui-fires-burned-25000-acres-in-2019/
State Official Refused to Release Water
Ongoing problems with water management in Maui in former sugar lands
Myers Briggs Emergency Management
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/personality-emergency-management-russell-boon-miaem
https://www.truity.com/blog/personality-type/entj
Myers Briggs Lawyer INTJ
One of these types (labeled INTJ) reportedly occurs five times more frequently in attorneys than in the population at large.
https://www.lhh.com/us/en/insights/5-common-personality-types-for-lawyers-and-attorneys/
So what is it about INTJs? Well, Richard describes them as “conceptual, analytical, ambitious, curious, and driven, and they are the only one of the 16 types for whom an elevated IQ has been statistically correlated. That’s right—INTJ’s are slightly more intelligent as a type than individuals who prefer any of the other 15 types.”
Myers Briggs Become Rambo
INFJ- They retreat into their own magical world until someone rescues them
INFP- They don’t panic but they do become excitable.
INTJ- They don’t know what to do, and become anxious because of the lack of plan involved.
INTP- Try to calmly and logically figure out the best way to solve the problem.
ENFJ- Become worked up but try and make sure that everyone that they care about is safe.
ENFP- Become concerned with keeping themselves safe in the moment.
ENTJ- Attempt to organize everyone ineffectively.
ENTP- Try and think of multiple ideas to help the situation.
ISFJ- Make sure the people that they care about are safe.
ISFP- They become Rambo.
ISTJ- They follow the drills they have been practicing for years.
ISTP- They help the less capable people.
ESFJ- They convince everyone that everything is fine.
ESFP- Constantly remind everyone that this is an emergency.
ESTJ- They yell orders and tell everyone that is freaking out to shut up.
ESTP- Tell the ENTJ to be quiet and demand that everyone follow their plan instead.
Lawyer Personality
- ISTJ (17.8%)
- ESTJ (10.3%)
- INTJ (13.1%)
- ENTP (9.7%)
- INTP (9.4%)
- ENTJ (9.0
Red Adair
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/you-red-adair-kornerstone-and-partners
Red Adair
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Adair
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2004-aug-09-me-adair9-story.html
“They’ve been to school, but they haven’t been out bustin’ their asses on oil rigs,” he told Singerman. “Arguing with an engineer is like wrestling with a pig. Everybody gets covered with crap, and the pig’s the only one who has a good time.”
Occupational Outlook Handbook
